Every two years, Americans elect 435 members of the House—but many of those races are barely contests at all.
Drawing the Battlefield
House members are elected from single-seat districts. State redistricting commissions or legislatures draw the boundaries, and the process is often partisan. Lines can be shaped to protect incumbents or concentrate political opponents in particular districts.
This practice is known as gerrymandering. By arranging voters geographically, mapmakers can influence which party is likely to win even before candidates campaign.
Safe Seats, Few Surprises
Fewer than 10 percent of House seats are contested in each election cycle, and more than 90 percent of House members are reelected every two years. The article notes that gerrymandering has benefited the Republican Party more than the Democratic Party.
The effects reach beyond individual races. Combined with first-past-the-post voting, district boundaries can produce a gap between a party’s share of the popular vote and its share of seats.
A district map may look like administrative geometry, but it is also a political prediction. It determines which voters compete against one another, which communities are divided, and which candidates can treat reelection as nearly guaranteed. In American democracy, the shape of the map can matter almost as much as the choices made on the ballot.
